The economy is still growing. It looks like we can push recession fears back at least another two quarters. That is, if you define recession as a fall in GDP over two successive quarters. GDP growth in the third quarter came in at 1.9%. Some market participants were disappointed with this number, despite it being better than the expected 1.7%.
Equities moved higher this week as earnings take center stage. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5% and outpaced flat returns on the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. The dollar has been soft as of late, which is giving a tailwind to higher beta assets and foreign equities. Foreign developed gained 0.9% on the week and emerging markets pushed up 0.7%.
This week has given us positive moves in equity markets. The S&P 500 is up 1.77%. This strong move comes as we see a slight sliver of light in the tunnel that is the Sino-American trade negotiations. Talks seem to be moving in the right direction as we passed the October 15 deadline with no tariff increase.
Equities bounced back this week with domestic large caps outperforming small caps. The S&P 500 was up 1.2%, whereas small caps were flat. Bond yields inched higher resulting in little change in the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. Emerging market and foreign developed equities underperformed in the United States.
Equities rallied sharply on Friday following a decent monthly jobs report where 136,000 net adds were reported.
The markets are not a fan of the global manufacturing numbers coming out. This week’s returns may indicate equity markets actively don’t like the manufacturing numbers. The S&P 500 was down 2.5% for the week as of yesterday. This is the lowest weekly level since the beginning of August.
We are seeing the impact of the trade conflict on global manufacturing.