What a ride!
What a way to start a decade. Our major concerns coming into the new year were what US-China trade conflict resolution would look like and the impact of the 2020 general elections.
What a ride!
“Weeks Where Decades Happen”
The first quarter of 2020 was figuratively one of those “weeks where decades happen,” to quote the popular Vladimir Lenin phrase.
A Tale of Two Cities – Redux
What a difference a quarter makes. You may recall Jon Augustine, in our last Insight, presented a quote from the Charles Dickens novel mentioned above; “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” Investors experienced what Dickens captured as the “worst of times” as market volatility surged during the first quarter.
Through the Rain
One of the significant attributes of humans is irrationality. It is both an aid and an anathema to investors. Without this irrationality, it would be close to impossible to generate excess returns, and without it, losses would also be less likely.
The Fed Yields
Interest rates declined and inverted along the yield curve during the first quarter as domestic and global economic outlooks signaled slower growth ahead.
As fourth quarter 2018 came to a close, equity investors around the globe were tending to the wounds inflicted upon them by a brutal decline in stock prices.
The Second Quarter in Review
Equity investors rode a rollercoaster during the second quarter. As the quarter began, global equity valuations extended their rise initiated during the first quarter.
Beware the Consensus
A year ago bond yields were moving up materially and reached multi-year highs. Economists were racing to put up the highest number on their yield forecast for 2019 while financial advisors were fielding constant questions about potential losses from their clients’ fixed income portfolios.
How ’Bout Them Markets!
As the second quarter progressed from April into May, it would have been completely understandable if equity investors anticipated a weak follow-through from the very strong returns generated in the prior three months.
“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is.”
The title quote is from mathematics superstar, John Allen Paulos. This quote, coming from someone in a field as seemingly defined as math indicates the variability of life.